Some Thoughts On Home Advantage
I’ve posted in the past about a system, that I worked on with Phil Marsden the owner of the Alive and Flicking Facebook group for assessing, and applying an advantage to each game without changing any in-match rules. A system he seemed to be satisfied with at the time, as it went some way to suiting his immediate needs. He’s now looking to expand on the system in other ways, and I wish him, and anyone else that is looking to add such things into their solo games luck in formulating a system that suits them. I however have no intention personally to add such things into my League, or any other league competitions I run, and I’ll endeavour in the following paragraphs to explain why I feel that way.
It’s All About Realism
That phrase has cropped up a few times in conversations I’ve had with other solo players about advantage, it all seems to hinge on realism. My take on that is what do we actually perceive as real to begin with. Maybe it’s a historic tournament portraying the actual teams of that time. Deciding to play it giving an advantage to specific teams, because they were the better sides at that time in history, to some may seem like a good idea.
Personally it’s something I’d rather not bother with and consider it pointless from a solo playing point of view. I’ve put rules together to try and be balanced to both teams, and endeavour to play as unbiased as I can, to then add bias into the game seems to negate all that effort in the first place. I know that’s not the opinion of everyone and I’m not trying to convince anyone of anything. It’s purely my opinion and I’m sure we all have one of those.
Since 1888 when the Football league began, playing at home has been slightly more advantageous than playing away, and that fact seems to have followed in roughly the same proportions for the last 135 years.
We can obviously put every league game into one of three category’s, home wins, away wins, and draws, of which on average 45% would be home wins, 30% away wins, and 25% being draws. Throughout each season these numbers have fluctuated slightly but are roughly always in the same proportion.
However there are more things going on than the statistics reveal. Teams at the top for instance are more likely to win away when playing teams in and around the bottom of the league, and mid table clashes may have only a 50-50 chance of gaining an advantage in a match, and so on.
But when all’s said and done if you take all the results from a season that 45%, 30%, 25% distribution applies or is at least somewhere in that ball park. Yes teams at the top of the league will have registered more home and away wins when playing teams around the bottom of the league, and that may be something that players want to see happening in their own solo leagues, making certain teams stronger in some way as their season progresses. But for me with only 8 teams in each division I honestly feel it’s not really beneficial or in fact necessary.
Some Statistics From My Own League
Just for fun I decided to check my own league to see how it fits in with the averages over the last 135 years of league football.
As I don’t play any advantage or weight any of my league games whatsoever my gut feeling was that the amount of home and away wins would be more or less equally distributed with the rest obviously being draws.
The season I’ve just completed has returned 52 home wins, 37 away wins, and 23 draws, which equates to 46% home’s, 33% away’s, and 21% drawn games. Which seems to conform to what is considered “Normal”. I was surprised to find out that fact but it’s only 1 season. So to rule out a total fluke I decided to check the previous 2 seasons when the Bonfire Alliance first started.
So over the 3 seasons we have an overall total of 336 league games returning:
So considering I do not apply any form of advantage the numbers seem well within this “Normal” range. I didn’t expect them to be and have no idea why in fact they are.
So What Does This Prove?
I’m not offering the above as a reason why I feel that an advantage isn’t required. At the end of the day, they are just numbers and prove nothing. Somehow they seem to have conformed to a familiar pattern which I’ll attribute to pure coincidence.
Trying to play my games in what I consider to be a fair and balanced way without any conscious bias is far more important than playing a numbers game, or needing results to conform to any sort of pattern. With only 8 teams in a division I see no reason whatsoever to hand out an advantage to any one of them during a league campaign, to maybe skew results in favour of certain teams because they happen to be at the top, at home, or on a poor or an excellent run of results. They each play 14 games, and each opponent twice, and I have no idea what the outcome will be until the final whistle. Each match then, is played to the best of my ability, or at least my best at that time, with no rule changes, dice throwing, or convoluted methods of calculating how many flicks can be used by teams either in attack or defence. It’s just me, 2 teams, and a set of rules trying to outscore each other.
But What About Cup Games
I would imagine we could all agree up to a point that cup games are different from regular league games. Who doesn’t enjoy watching the underdog from a lower division take on and beat top or higher tiered opposition, and to be honest the odds are much more in the favour of the higher ranked team anyway whether they are playing home or away, and I felt that the cup competition in the Bonfire Alliance should at least reflect this in some small way.
It may seem like a contradiction from the previous paragraphs but I’ve introduced since the beginning of the Alliance a weighting system into cup ties that involve teams from different tiers of the league, but people that know me, know I try to to keep things as simple as I can. So the advantage revolves around the Keeper. If a team plays a higher tiered team in any round apart from the final the lower tiered team is required to change it’s keeper for the game. Now in league games the keeper used is always the Diving BBB variety, as it gives the biggest coverage between the posts, in cup ties however the lower ranked team is required to use the upright variety. Also when the spare keeper is brought into play the lower tiered spare is allowed only 2 consecutive touches if 1 tier lower, and only 1 touch if 2 tiers lower than their opponents.
That’s it no more, no less, it affects nothing in the actual playing of the game but does allow the higher ranked team a slightly better chance of scoring, and add more of a cup tie feel to proceedings. So far in the first 3 seasons it’s worked out quite well, I wouldn’t allow or consider any advantage in the final, if a lower ranked team manages to get that far they probably have deserved to be there and as such I feel they shouldn’t be disadvantaged in any way.
Final Thoughts
You may feel I’m against weighting or advantage in league games and you’re not wrong in that assumption. My feelings from the outset have been that it’s not needed or even necessary to enhance the enjoyment I’ve had and still get. It may be, and probably is just lady luck that the distribution of results of the previous Bonfire Alliance seasons have been consistent with the last 135 years of the Football League, but they’re just numbers.
Yes I weight cup ties in a very small way, just enough I feel, to give a higher tiered team the edge in front of goal, but in the league I feel it’s not needed. Giving any one of the 8 teams in either division any form of advantage seems a pointless exercise. So far in the 3 seasons of the Bonfire Alliance there has been something to play for up to and including the final round of games. I really couldn’t ask for more as far as I’m concerned.
I’ll invite you now to post in the comments your thoughts on advantage or weighting of games, I’ll gladly engage and may even follow up on this post with your thoughts and ideas if they are forthcoming. We all do things differently and how and why we do things in the solo side of the game is just as interesting to me as is the actual playing, I hope you may feel in some way the same.
Keep on Flicking
Ian
Another interesting and thought-provoking read, Ian. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteI think there is a subtle difference between 'home advantage' and 'weighting' or 'bias'.
If home advantage is applied uniformly throughout a season, there is, in theory, no particular advantage for any particular team, so each has an equal chance.
Well done on your results, by the way. They are statistically closer to the 135 years of Football League ones than mine are, and I use a 'uniform' home advantage throughout a season.
Thanks for your comment David.
DeleteYes I agree there’s a subtle difference between Home advantage, and weighting or bias however we choose to call it, and to be honest although different they are essentially the same, one is applied to the home team, the other to a team who by whatever method we choose to judge who is deemed to be the superior side whether at home or not.
I would however argue the fact that If a uniform consistent advantage is given to every team when playing at home in an attempt to mimic reality (if in fact that’s why you apply it) is not actually that accurate in the first place, and probably no more accurate than applying nothing as I do, (unless the advantage applied is so great to the home side, which then makes the process a little pointless to begin with).
No I’m not trying to prove your method wrong or somehow flawed, and that boils down to the fact I’m unsure what your aims are to begin with. But I’d ask the question if your method is not living up to your expectations why bother?
At the end of the day we do what we do, and we still get league champions, and relegation fights, which is why we probably all play leagues in the first place, and how we get there is up to us. From my perspective any form of home advantage or bias in my league games seems totally unnecessary. Others may see things differently, that’s the beauty of solo none of us have to conform to predetermined rules or conventions to begin with do we.
Another great post, Ian. Thanks for taking the time.
ReplyDeleteMy take on home advantage is solo play is that, as you suggest, it's not worth the faff incorporating anything too complicated. I don't like the extra flick idea. I don't even like mixing up keeper sizes. The only thing I do in my own solo league is to have the inevitable 50/50 decisions when they come up go the way of the home team. It's more HAR (Home Advantage Referee) than VAR if you like.
That said, my current league set up only has teams playing each other once. I suppose the idea of home advantage is more of a thing if, as I am, you take on a full fixture list of home and away fixtures for each team.
Thanks John
DeleteAs you say each team only playing the others once in a season does kind of negate the need for a home advantage.
Those inevitable 50/50 decisions I take a step further I roll a dice, (if I honestly can't decide quickly) even number favours the attack, and the attack is deemed the team in possession just before the incident, so VAR becomes DAR if you like. Even that is rare to be honest.
I change my keepers in cup ties if necessary just to add a little something extra into the cup tie, and it's made a small amount of difference or has appeared to only 1 lower tiered side has reached the 3 finals I've played so far. If ever a cup tie goes to a shootout both sides get the same keeper, and shootouts between different tiered teams have been slightly more frequent than from the same tier. Why no idea perhaps there's some unconscious bias at play who knows, it's not something I intend to worry about going forward.
I had a good think on this
Deletetopic but in truth as we say in the foothills of the Lancashire - Yorkshire border I am for once stuck for summat to say 😉😂
It’s not something I’ve ever done I think on balance I agree with Ian’s thoughts
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